Week 5 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Packers @ Raiders
The Packers will travel to Sin City to take on the Raiders on Monday Night Football.
It may not be the most marquee matchup of the week, but it should at least be entertaining. The current betting line separates these squads by less than a field goal, and the total sits at a respectable 44.5 points. That suggests a back-and-forth affair with a handful of TDs.
Neither of these squads is off to a particularly good start. Green Bay is sitting at 2-2, but they're coming off a thumping by Detroit in Week 4. As for Las Vegas, they have just one win thus far, and it came all the way back in Week 1 against Denver.
Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s break down all the betting angles for Monday Night Football.
Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Raiders -1.5 (-115; BetMGM)
- Total: 45.5
- Moneylines: Packers +110 / Raiders -130
This number initially opened as a pick’em, but it's since steadily moved in the Raiders’ direction all week. This number is up to Las Vegas -2.5 at some locations, but -1.5 is still available if you like them on BetMGM.
The one thing that the Packers have going for them is a significant rest advantage. They played on Thursday night last week, so they’ve had a full 11 days off coming into this matchup. That said, teams with comparable rest advantages haven’t historically smashed. They’re just 203-203-10 dating back to 2005 when playing a team on normal rest.
The bigger impact is that the extra time off should help Green Bay get a bit healthier. Only two players missed practice on Friday, and Elgton Jenkins and Jaire Alexander are both on track to suit up after missing the past two games. David Bakhtiari was unfortunately lost to a season-ending injury, but other than that, this team is trending in the right direction health-wise.
The question is: will that matter?
The Packers haven't been a particularly impressive team. One of their wins was against the lowly Bears, and the other was a massive comeback against the Saints after Derek Carr got hurt.
If you exclude that game in Week 1 against Chicago, Green Bay's offense ranks merely 21st in expected points added (EPA) per play. They’ve had virtually no run game to speak of, currently ranking 25th in rushing success rate, and have only been slightly more successful through the air.
Sep 24, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) throws against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
The Raiders’ offense hasn’t been any better – they’ve actually been worse – but the team will benefit from the return of Jimmy Garoppolo. He represents a significant upgrade over Aiden O’Connell, who made his first career start last week against the Chargers.
Garoppolo has historically been an excellent investment as a small favorite or underdog. When laying less than three points, he’s 17-9 ATS during the regular season. Most of that comes from his tenure with the 49ers, but he’s 1-1 in that split as a member of the Raiders.
The sharps also seem to prefer Las Vegas in this spot. They’ve received 60% of the dollars on just 48% of the bets per the Action Network, and while that’s not a huge discrepancy, it does jive with the line movement. This is probably not a game that I’ll bet heavily, if at all, but the Raiders feel like the correct side.
Player Prop Bets
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry. There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.
Our team has uploaded two props into the free Bet Tracker for this Monday Night Football matchup. Geoff Ulrich likes the over on 49.5 yards for Christian Watson, and Matthew Freedman is on over 10.5 rushing yards for Jordan Love.
Watson feels like a prime buy-low target. He had a meager 48% route participation in his first game back last week, but that figure will undoubtedly rise as he gets further removed from his injury. However, his utilization was encouraging. He was targeted on 20% of his routes run, and he had a 37% air yards share over his final six games in 2022. Watson figures to be the top pass-catcher in Green Bay if fully healthy.
Sep 28, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Detroit Lions safety Brian Branch (32) breaks up a pass intended for Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) during their football game on Thursday, September 28, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Mandatory Credit: Tork Mason-USA TODAY Sports
His current receiving prop is set at just 40.5 yards on BetMGM, but you can grab the over on an alternate line for a greater potential payout. This feels like a strong ladder bet candidate. If Watson goes over this number, there's also a good chance that he could soar well over it.
As for Love, there's been value in targeting overs for second-tier rushing QBs to start the season. Sam Howell came through with an over for us on Thursday Night Football, and Love fits a very similar mold. He’s averaged 4.5 rushing attempts and 18.5 rushing yards through his first four starts this season, so 10.5 rushing yards seems like a very low number.
We currently have Love projected for more than 14 rushing yards, so you can comfortably play this number up to about 12.5.
The under on 34.5 receiving yards for Luke Musgrave is another strong candidate. Musgrave had solid utilization numbers to start the season, but his role figures to decline as the team gets healthier. We have him projected for less than 26 yards, so the under provides a bit of wiggle room as well.
Same-Game Parlay
We hit an absolute banger of a same-game parlay (SGP) on Thursday, combining the Bears ML with at least 175 passing yards for Justin Fields, a Cole Kmet anytime TD, and Antonio Gibson under 24.5 rushing yards. The result was a +1750 payout, putting us well into the black with our SGPs on the year.
That’s the beauty of a same-game parlay. You’re not going to win the majority of them, but when you do, they can offset the losses quickly. SGPs should still not be a major part of your betting philosophy, but there’s nothing wrong with sprinkling them in.
As usual, we’ll be attempting to build a correlated SGP for this contest. That means that if one leg hits, it should increase the likelihood that the others do as well.
I’m going to start this game by targeting the Raiders ML and combining it with over 43.5 points. In addition to liking the Raiders, the sharps also like the over in this matchup.
I’m going to add in some Josh Jacobs props, since I think that he should have success in a projected win for Las Vegas. The Packers were also bludgeoned on the ground by the Lions in Week 4, and Green Bay currently ranks just 27th in rush defense EPA for the year. Something like 80 rushing yards and a TD seems very doable for Jacobs.
I’m also going to throw in at least 50 receiving yards for Watson. We’re going to need some scoring from the Packers if this game goes over, and Watson is more than capable of making a big play.
Add it all up and it looks a little something like this:
The odds on this SGP aren’t quite as tasty as Thursday’s, but +950 is certainly nothing to scoff at. Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!
We’ll be back on Thursday for another prime-time matchup breakdown, but until then, don’t forget to check out the free picks on our bet tracker and other great betting tools we have on the site.
You can tail the SGP on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
